Trends in Food Consumption Beyond Covid

India reopens its restaurants this week, after the world’s longest lockdown. Some things have changed forever in these 3 months. Let us examine what will be the impact of this on the way we consume food at home, at office and for leisure.

India’s restaurant sector was finally coming into its own over the last 4-5 years. New cuisines and new formats were being launched by passionate foodpreneurs, backed by venture capitalists. All this was fueled by the insatiable appetite, adventurous spirit and bulging wallets of the millennials who grew up expecting food other than Indian on their dining tables. And suddenly this crisis brought restaurants to a grinding halt.

Lockdown has been brutal for this sector, dominated by small-sized, standalone ventures. The salaries of the staff, punishing rentals, wastage of raw material inventory and an uncertain future, all these together have broken the back of many restaurant owners. The future does not seem easy either.

First, there is fear in the minds of the consumer. An aware person would think hard before going into a crowded restaurant and risk exposure through AC air or via direct contact. There is limit to how much a restaurateur could clean the chairs, tables, sofas in a running space.

Then there is the economic reason. The price of a dish in a restaurant is typically 4 to 5 times the cost of the dish. Many people would be struggling for basic survival in near future, and might avoid going out to eat. The domino effect will have an impact on the high and the mighty too and they would begin to hold on to their money more tightly.

Migrant labour crisis is a reality. 50-60 per cent staff in a restaurant in a metro is comprised of migrant labour, which is highly trained for consistent cooking and customer-facing jobs. It would be very difficult for this service-oriented sector to attract trained migrants again at the same costs as before, adding further challenge to the already complex future.

Restaurants in malls are going to have another challenge. Multiplexes, which are the major crowd-puller in malls, are going to open last since they are potential hotbeds of infection. This would create hurdles in attracting sufficient business for the restaurants too.

App-based delivery services have boomed in India over the last few years, powered by unicorn-sized funding from PE investors. However this sector would also face challenging times for two reasons. First, trust factor would be missing as far as hygiene and safety is concerned. The customer does not know where the food being delivered is coming from since a number of ‘delivery only cloud kitchens’ have opened but no one ever gets to visit these places, their address is not mentioned anywhere, and the certifications they have are not authenticated.

Secondly, delivered food is expensive too, and again the customer will need to make a discerning choice between homemade food and delivery options. A dish from outside is typically costs 3-4 times more than the cost of raw ingredients required to prepare it at home. Eating outside food would become more of a luxury.

Third, the delivery process itself has been known to be the carrier of the infection. Such incidents have already riled up the customers. Moreover, while raw ingredients can be sanitized at home, ready to eat food cannot be sanitized by either soap or disinfectants. This would pose a growth challenge for a good part of one year.

Cafeterias in companies are also likely to face a tough time. The challenge here is dual in nature. First, these spaces often become very crowded, and the buffet layout is the ideal ground for infection with multiple touch points. Second, many organisations would adopt work from home policy for over 50% of the staff by rotation. This will pose a challenge of viability to cafeteria operations where the food is subsidized in nature and the margins are wafer thin.

Home Cooking is the real alternative in times to come. The 10 weeks of lockdown have brought out the inner chef in almost all of us. House helps and cooks were unable to come to work during this time, which created the opportunity for families to cook together. People are beginning to enjoy the simple, non-oily home food and have actually reported loss of stubborn flab. Baking is also on the rise, as the millennials simply love it.

Interestingly, many people are getting to know their own kitchen for the first time. It is no more that remote area of the house where the food comes out of miraculously. Now there are conversations amongst friends about the brand of blender they use, or the pans they use to reduce oil consumption, or the type of grill they have. Those interested in baking are ordering ovens and mixers. Many are scrambling to buy choppers and other food-prep tools. There is a marked movement towards automated cooking appliances too. Many buildings are not going to allow free movement of domestic help for some time. Considering all this it is quite likely that people who have discovered the joy of cooking, and expressing their love through their creations, would continue to do so. In a way, the pandemic has taught us how lead a simpler, uncomplicated, more self-dependent life.